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 The Noise in Short-Term Performance Thumbnail

The Noise in Short-Term Performance

Noise in returns limits the usefulness of short-term performance in manager evaluation. Because even minute, arbitrary differences between investments can drive huge differences in realized returns, eye-catching short-term relative performance observed in the past may offer little insight into expected value-add. Longer-term results, particularly when achieved across a suite of investment strategies, offer a more reliable evaluation framework. Investors should also consider the manager’s investment process—a robust process built on decades of expertise can add value that is observable without looking to noisy market returns.

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 The Noise in Short-Term Performance Thumbnail

The Noise in Short-Term Performance

Noise in returns limits the usefulness of short-term performance in manager evaluation. Because even minute, arbitrary differences between investments can drive huge differences in realized returns, eye-catching short-term relative performance observed in the past may offer little insight into expected value-add. Longer-term results, particularly when achieved across a suite of investment strategies, offer a more reliable evaluation framework. Investors should also consider the manager’s investment process—a robust process built on decades of expertise can add value that is observable without looking to noisy market returns.

Read More